Nothing warms the college football soul quite like an Upset Saturday.
Upsets provide fans with memories that last a lifetime. Some of my fondest college football memories include Appalachian State’s epic 2007 upset over Michigan in The Big House, the 2007 Backyard Brawl where 28.5-point underdog Pittsburgh knocked off title-game-bound West Virginia and the sheer Grinch-like pride I felt during the myriad of Memorial Stadium shortcomings Nebraska suffered during the Mike Riley and Scott Frost eras.
While massive upsets are difficult to predict (that’s what makes them great), one of my favorite preseason exercises is examining the entire college football slate and sprinkling some upset bird food.
Below is a list of my favorite 2024 college football upset possibilities and my super-secret rating system designating the likelihood that an upset might happen.
Week 1
“The Dakota Special”
The group chat has been clamoring for this one and rightfully so. Rarely, if ever, do we get a nice little upset bundle until now.
Thursday, August 29 - North Dakota State vs. -8 Colorado - Sorta Realistic
This is a delightful appetizer for a jam-packed, first full weekend of college football. Blowing into Boulder like an Old West tumbleweed is FCS darling NDSU poised to challenge the talk of the college football town in Colorado. What could go wrong?
Despite the small number here, this game feels too trendy of an upset pick, even for me. I sort of like NDSU to keep it fairly close, but I don’t love the idea of an outright upset. Five years ago? Yes! But not now.
This is not your older brother’s NDSU. The rival south of Fargo is the new NDSU. More on that later.
It wouldn’t shock me if NDSU runs the ball, controls the clock and does its best to minimize a potentially potent Colorado offense. But Colorado has way too many athletes on this field for an upset to happen unless it’s a truly disastrous showing in Pat Shurmur’s first game as offensive coordinator.
Saturday, August 30 - South Dakota State vs. -8.5 No. 17 Oklahoma State - Sorta Realistic
Sometimes in life, the universe gives you signs. And the arrest and hoop-la surrounding Oklahoma State standout running back Ollie Gordon in early July feels like a sign to circle this game.
SDSU is the new NDSU, fresh off an outrageously dominant 15-0 national title campaign in 2023 and it wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest if they made this a nightmare day for Cowboys fans. SDSU is big and physical and will walk into T. Boone Pickens Stadium determined to shock the world.
According to head coach Mike Gundy, Gordon will not be suspended. To say that decision has raised some eyebrows is an understatement.
I’m kicking around the idea of an outright upset here and I would take the Jackrabbits. More so, I encourage everyone to consider taking an NDSU-SDSU to cover parlay and naming it The Dakota Special. You’re welcome!
Week 3
Thursday, September 12 - Arizona State vs. Texas State - Realistic
Nobody walks into San Marcos on a hot September night and walks out with a win against America’s Team.
Fresh off an 8-5 record in 2023, I suspect the Bobcats’ up-tempo, pass-happy offense to give teams fits in 2024, and that includes Arizona State. GJ Kinne appears poised to be a hot commodity in the coaching cycle next off-season and a big win against a Power 5 opponent will only boost his resume.
This game feels particularly ripe for an upset because a) Texas State was good last year and all signs point toward another good season and b) ASU stunk last year and I’m not sure why I should believe they’ll be that much better in 2024. ASU is a tough job post-Herm Edwards and Kenny Dillingham has a big mountain to climb.
It wouldn’t shock me for Texas State to gash the Sun Devils for 500 yards in the air and just make their life miserable. I’m riding with the Bobcats.
Saturday, September 14 - Memphis vs. Florida State - Probably Not, But Oh My God That Would Be Funny
Florida State suffered a particularly cruel fate in 2023. The Seminoles were national title-bound before a brutal injury to standout quarterback Jordan Travis upended their season. After being left out of the College Football Playoff, the Seminoles are now tasked with getting up off the mat and reaching the same heights this year.
Keep your eyes on this game. I’m not saying, I’m just saying.
In ESPN Bill Connelly’s post-spring SP+ rankings, Memphis comes in at 39th in the country and looks locked and loaded for a huge year in 2024. The Tigers appear to be especially strong on offense, with the ninth-most returning production this season.
Quarterback Seth Henigan crushed it last year and in the offseason, was rumored to be wanted by some of the biggest programs in the country. Fortunately, he stayed put and now he and the Tigers have eyes on a College Football Playoff berth.
FSU should be strong once again, highlighted by transfer quarterback DJ Uiagalelei. I’m curious to see how Uiagalelei looks in garnett and gold. He’s been slightly underwhelming in stops at Clemson and Oregon State, but FSU should have plenty of talent to complement him. I expect this to be a really fun, early-season showdown.
Saturday, September 14 - Cincinnati vs. Miami Ohio - Realistic
Last year, I was all aboard the Miami Ohio hype train the Redhawks did not disappoint. Despite standout quarterback Brett Gabbert going down with a brutal injury mid-MAC schedule, Miami Ohio piecemealed their way to the title game in Detroit where they beat a good Toledo team.
Now, Gabbert is back for his sixth-year swan song and fingers crossed he stays healthy. For all the good that Miami Ohio saw last year, the off-season was a bit rough, as their roster got picked over by Power 5 teams. Still, Chuck Martin is still calling the shots, meaning the Redhawks will likely be good on defense and still compete in the MAC.
Cincinnati on the other hand, well, it was a rough year for Scott Satterfield. The Bearcats took it on the chin in their first year in the Big 12. I have long and short-term concerns about Satterfield and his fit with Cincinnati. I did not like what I saw last year, and while they’ll likely be slightly improved, I’m not overlooking the Redhawks.
Keep an eye on this one.
Week 4
Saturday, September 14 - James Madison vs. North Carolina - Realistic
UNC head coach Mack Brown has had an illustrious career in college football, but it feels a bit like the game has passed him by. From his assistant coach choices and his teams’ continuous lack of physicality to wasting two elite college quarterbacks, Brown and this version of UNC feel very washed.
I’m officially out on UNC until proven otherwise. Last year, I attempted to talk myself into a good season because of Drake Maye, but that proved to be futile, just like it was with Sam Howell. The Tar Heels finally won’t have an elite college quarterback to lean on and I think it’s in for a rude awakening.
James Madison, on the other hand, is ushering in a new era with the hiring of head coach Bob Chesney from Holy Cross. Chesney was awesome in FCS and I was very encouraged by this hire. The Dukes did some fun stuff last year and I suspect that trend will continue.
UNC feels primed for an upset and I like the Dukes to do it.
Week 9
Friday, October 25 - Rutgers vs. USC - Sorta Realistic
BIG 10 AFTER DARK, anyone?
USC head coach Lincoln Riley is straddling the seesaw right now and a late-night, Friday night loss at home to Rutgers just might send him flying.
I can only believe what I’ve seen so far with USC, and it’s been a big disappointment. The college football world expected Riley to dominate in the Pac-12/Big 10 and it just has not happened yet. With a laughable defense, USC managed to squander generational quarterback talent Caleb Williams and doesn’t look anywhere near ready for a new, tougher league.
But in the Trojans defense, change was a major theme this off-season. New assistant coaches, new quarterback, new league, etc. In truth, I don’t know what to expect. No way their defense is that bad again…but what if it still isn’t good enough?
On the other side, Rutgers and head coach Greg Schiano are riding high. The Scarlet Knights are making major waves in recruiting and appear poised for a legitimate chance at a scalp in 2024.
And if we’re being honest, Rutgers beating USC would be hysterical. Nothing says pageantry, glitz and glamor quite like Piscataway, New Jersey, right?
Week 12
Saturday, November 16 - No. 2 Ohio State vs. Northwestern - Probably Not, But Oh My God That Would Be Funny
For the uninitiated, Northwestern is playing its 2024 home games in a makeshift, 15,000-capacity stadium alongside Lake Michigan. This temporary stadium will feel very small and has no buildings around it to block the wind, so I can only imagine how bitterly cold and windy this mid-November game against Ohio State will be.
Imagine: A juiced-up Ohio State team with all eyes set on beating Michigan, winning the Big 10 and winning a national title, waltzes into this blustery, high school ass stadium and loses 13-9 to a below .500 Northwestern team.
This is the stuff of dreams. My dreams, specifically.
Look, will this happen? Probably not. But my God, the sheer size of the humble pie a wind-whipped, lip-chapped Ryan Day would have to eat to lose in this fashion, at this place. Whew, buddy. We will be there.