Taking stock of the 2023 CFB season

First of all, I want to say thank you. Thank you for reading and rockin’ with me throughout the season. While the season isn’t quite over, the end is near. It’s a sad time. Every year, it feels like college football comes and goes faster than ever before.

Thankfully, we still have bowl games and the College Football Playoff to look forward to. Those games should be fun, and a last hurrah on the 2023 season.

But before we grab our shovels and throw dirt on the 2023 season, let’s hop in the time machine and go back to August. Let’s revisit my 2023 Bulls and Bears predictions, see whether they were a hit/miss and examine how we think about new seasons moving forward.

I feel quite proud about this one, I can’t lie. I bravely proclaimed that a JT Daniels-led Rice team could truly push for a bowl game, and here we are. The Owls finished the season at 6-6 and are headed to the SERVPRO First Responders’ Bowl to take on America’s Team in Texas State.

I felt strongly about Daniels’ ability to play at a high level with Rice, and he’s lived up to the billing. Despite some injury issues he finished the year with almost 2500 passing yards and a 21:7 TD to INT ratio. Unfortunately, he announced he’s retiring from football due to injuries. Let’s hope he goes on to have a great coaching career.

In August, I joked that the Brian Ferentz Drive for 25 contract clause wouldn’t really matter and that they’d end up in Indianapolis anyway, and I was right on the money once again. While this Ferentz-led offense has been really bad (so much so it’s getting him fired), the Hawkeyes stand atop the trash heap that is the B10 West and got the chance to take on Michigan for the Big 10 title. Shhhh we don’t need to talk about that game anymore.

I thought quarterback Cade McNamara would have a big impact on this offense, but because of injuries and just typically not great play, it just didn’t work out this year. I’m unsure of Iowa’s place in the B10 moving forward, but this year was a good reminder that with great defense and special teams, you can win an entire division when it’s the B10 West.

Despite stumbling out of the gate to a 1-3 record, our beloved Roadrunners rattled off seven in a row and settled in nicely at 8-4. Perhaps they didn’t hit the lofty heights I thought they would, such as reaching the American title game. But that combo of HC Jeff Traylor and QB Frank Harris just doesn’t miss.

When Harris was healthy, the Meeps were good. And great news for UTSA fans, both Traylor and Harris should be back next year. Harris will be playing his eighth year of college football next year as a 24-year-old. What a world we live in.

This is a hit on the Beavers’ success, but a bit of a miss on how well I thought DJ Uiagalelei would play. I predicted an 8 or 9-win season for the boys from Corvallis, and I hit that prediction comfortably with them settling in at 8-4.

DJ Uiagalelei has been a bit up and down this season. Despite some strong showings against weaker opponents, his inability to hit receivers in high-pressure, obvious passing situations has resulted in them dropping that game against an undefeated Washington. Jonathan Smith is still a wizard, and he’s done an excellent job. Moving forward, I’ll probably just bet on Jonathan Smith's Michigan State teams to outperform expectations.

Below is what I wrote about the Cardinals in August.

Spot freaking on, man. Jeff Brohm has been a revelation this year. He came in, established an identity and got this team humming, despite some up-and-down quarterback play from Jack Plummer. The Cardinals’ offense really struggled in the ACC title game, but all in all, this was a great season for Brohm and Louisville. I am, however, curious to see if they can maintain a similar level of success next year without the extremely favorable schedule.

Haha OK, I’ll admit it. I took a swing on this one. I banked on all of that 5-star talent finally clicking and Jimbo pushing the right buttons. WRONG.

Jimbo flopped–and got fired as a result of it. I incorrectly predicted A&M to beat Miami in Week 2, and Bobby Petrino’s ability to scheme up plays just wasn’t enough to translate to wins…especially after Max Johnson went down.

Below is what I wrote about the Longhorns and Sooners in August.

Pretty dang close, huh! Texas had a really phenomenal year and is set to take on Washington in the CFP semifinals. Their development upfront, specifically on the defensive line, just allowed them to hit another gear this season.

And while they didn’t live up to UT’s level, OU was pretty dang good too. They handed the Longhorns their only loss of the season and scored a lot of points along the way. With Dillon Gabriel departing, it appears to be time for highly-touted quarterback Jackson Arnold to take the reins. Let’s keep our eye on that for next year.

This was an easy one. Toledo is always good and almost always has a talent advantage over the rest of the MAC. Toledo smoked through their schedule and made it to the MAC championship game, falling just short of back-to-back titles. Good news for Toledo fans–it appears HC Jason Candle is staying put for another year. That should spell success for the Rockets again next season.

I feel really great about this one, too. In August, I described Troy as a team with “a hard-nosed defense and who likes to open a can of whoop ass on someone” and that was nailed on. Troy was awesome this year, finishing with an 11-2 record and a Sun Belt title. Their defense was dominant once again, and Sumrall really had them cooking down the stretch.

Jon Sumrall has started to get some P5 looks, and rightfully so. He’s a damn good coach and has done some great things for the Trojans.

Below is what I wrote about the Tar Heels in August.

And, uh, yeah, that’s pretty much what happened. UNC had some decent highs, especially early in the year, but it was the inconsistency and the defense that ultimately plagued them. That loss to Virginia was just tragic, too.

Drake Maye is awesome and has a good chance to crush it at the next level. It’s sort of unfortunate that he never really had a good defense around him while in Chapel Hill.

No ifs and or buts here, Kent State was an atrocious football team in 2023. The Golden Flashes’ lone win came against Central Connecticut State and it managed to lose nine in a row to close out the season.

This is a really hard job. And years like this just make you realize that former CU OC Sean Lewis might’ve been an actual miracle worker getting this team to bowl eligibility not long ago.

I legitimately thought that Arkansas State would be one of the worst teams in all of Division I, and I was pleasantly surprised and very OK with being wrong here.

Butch Jones did some solid work with this team and managed to get them to six wins and a bowl berth. ASU weren’t worldbeaters or anything, but they weren’t abysmal and that is something to be proud of. This is sort of a weird job and I’m curious to see how Jones can try to build off this promising year next season.

Absolutely nailed this one. This particular prediction makes me feel good about my logic and process.

In August, I reasoned that most of the Big 12 newcomers would struggle. I also felt like Cincy’s inability to nail the NIL game, coupled with their questionable choice of quarterbacks would lead to some hard times and my thought process was spot on.

I also banked on Cincinnati’s inability to nail the NIL game and questionable choice at quarterback and my thought process was spot on. The Bearcats lost seven of their last 10 games and were largely a forgotten team in 2023.

I’m pretty firmly not a Scott Satterfield guy. Not to say they can’t improve and find their footing a bit, but I didn’t love the hire when it happened and I don’t feel any better about it now.

Below is what I wrote about UAB in August.

I’m splitting hairs a bit with this hit-or-miss call. But considering that I predicted a total teardown mess of a situation, I’ll call it a miss.

Trent Dilfer’s debut season wasn’t great by any means. The Blazers finished 4-8, but weirdly enough they weren’t as awful as I thought they might be. All of their wins came against equally bad or worse teams, so they’re a bit tough to evaluate.

Not sure what the future holds for this program. Dilfer fancies himself as a quarterback guru and seems to believe he can recruit some real difference-makers to Birmingham. I guess time will tell.

Pleasantly surprised and happy to be wrong on this one. In August, West Virginia coach Neal Brown sat atop everyone’s First Coach Fired big board and things looked grim. The Mountaineers were predicted to finish last in the new-look Big 12 and Brown had to defend his team at media days.

Credit where credit is due, Brown shut everyone up and had a really good season. The Mountaineers finished up 8-4, in large part because they bet the teams they were supposed to beat and beat teams that were of equal talent levels. That’s a skill and a sure-fire way to keep yourself afloat.

I have no clue what this means for next season. If the Mountaineers struggle out of the gate, Brown could go right back to the hot seat. But I’m glad for his sake that he turned things around in 2023.

Below is what I wrote about TCU in August.

Cinderella turned back into a pumpkin in 2023. Just a year prior, TCU had a high-flying, explosive offense and kick-ass defense and both of those things went away in 2023. Losing Max Duggan and failing to adequately replace him crushed the offense. And their defense just couldn’t get stops. They gave up a ton of points in big games against Colorado, Oklahoma, etc.

This felt like a pretty safe prediction back in August. I hesitate to call the 2022 TCU run a fluke per se, but it was just not sustainable year over year. Very curious to see if the Horned Frogs can bounce back in 2024.

Purdue was all sorts of messy in 2023, just as I thought it might be. Before the season, the QB Hudson Card-Purdue marriage seemed intriguing, but it never panned out. The Boilermakers had some clanker offensive games, struggling to score more than two touchdowns in games against Nebraska, Michigan, Iowa, etc.

With the Big 10 adding four more teams and eliminating divisions, this job only gets harder. Perhaps Purdue can hit the portal and reshape some things, but man I just don’t have a ton of confidence about this job moving forward.