Wisconsin head coach Luke Fickell is one tough son of a bitch.
Fickell’s former Ohio State teammate, Matt Finkes’ words, not mine. In a 2023 story from The Athletic, other former teammates swapped stories about Fickell from back in their playing days in Columbus.
Ryan Miller, a former linebacker at Ohio State, called Fickell “to this day the best high school wrestler in the state of Ohio.”
Heisman Trophy-winning running back turned Bowling Green head coach Eddie George described Fickell as “one dude that you did not want to see in an alley or get in a fight with at practice because he would twist you in knots.”
Fickell isn’t just renowned for his legendary toughness and bad-assery, though. There’s plenty of that, sure, but his teammates also rave about his competitiveness and courageous on-field performances during his playing days. They were also quick to mention the kindness and humanity he showed when visiting a dying former teammate in the hospital during the heat of recruiting season.
Fickell’s iron-sharpens-iron approach to life has served him well. But entering Year 3 at Wisconsin, his tenure, at least so far, has lacked the sharpness needed to compete in the modern Big 10 conference.
Embracing a Modern Offense
Soon after being hired in November of 2022, Fickell made a bold call with the decision to hire offensive coordinator Phil Longo. The hope with Longo, an Air Raid disciple who’s previous stops included North Carolina and Ole Miss, was that he would inject some modern principles and life into an offense that had gotten awfully stale toward the end of the Paul Chryst era.
However, Fickell was adamant the offense wouldn’t just be centered around passing the ball. He wanted to build a multi-faceted offensive identity that blended shotgun passing principles with a hard-nosed, between-the-tackles run scheme. Onlookers coined the new-look offense the Dairy Raid. On its face, the plan made sense.
The Badgers’ offense needed a rebuild. The four yards and a cloud of dust approach of yesteryear was outdated, and Fickell believed that Wisconsin needed to innovate to compete in the Big 10 and on the national stage.
Entering that season, Wisconsin’s offense was centered around menacing running back Braylon Allen. The offensive line needed some work, but Allen had all the makings of a legitimate between-the-tackles weapon in the Big 10. The quarterback position, on the other hand, was a different story.
Former starting quarterback Graham Mertz failed to live up to lofty expectations and exited the program via the Transfer Portal. Fickell turned to the portal for his replacement, landing on former SMU quarterback Tanner Mordecai. Mordecai came from an Air Raid scheme at SMU and looked to be a good fit for Longo’s system.
Things did not go smoothly for Mordecai, Longo or Fickell in Year 1.
The Badgers struggled on offense and were largely propped up by a formidable defense. Mordecai played in 10 games and finished with 2,0666 yards, nine touchdowns and four interceptions. His yards/attempt were only 6.6, indicating a lot of dinks and dunks and not enough explosive plays. Allen had a solid output of 984 yards and 12 touchdowns through 11 games. But the offense as a whole struggled, finishing ranked 93rd out of 133 teams, averaging just 23.5 points per game.
The offense was bad, but the defense was legitimately good and helped push the Badgers to seven wins in Fickell’s first year. Not great, but not horrible either.
In Year 2, the bottom fell out on the offensive side of the ball.
Wtih Mordecai out of eligibility, the Badgers once again turned to the Transfer Portal to address their quarterback needs, this time landing on former Miami signal-caller Tyler Van Dyke. Van Dyke showed flashes in an Air Raid system in Coral Gables, but had a dip in form after a strong freshman season. Fickell and Wisconsin were banking on a change of scenery being just what TVD needed to get right.
The Tyler Van Dyke era in Madison did not last long.
Van Dyke played in just three games, before suffering a season-ending lower body injury against Alabama in a highly-televised nonconference showdown. In came backup Braedyn Locke, who struggled in a lot of big spots over the remainder of the season.
Through 11 games, Locke threw for a little over 1,900 yards and finished with 13 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. His yards/attempt was 6.5, even lower than Mordecai’s the year prior. Locke seemed like a good kid, but he was just never a good fit for this system. He looked lost and held this team back in many games.
Just how bad was Locke?
Source: Hudl IQ
Using Hudl IQ Player Radar Data, we can see that compared to Big 10 average quarterback play, Locke was below average in every discernible metric outside of EPA/Rush and Sack% %. Locke was able to do some halfway decent things with his legs when pressured, but offered very little else across the board.
He finished the year with an EPA/Play of -0.09 and an EPA/Pass of -0.11. Woof, those are some grim numbers.
Locke wasn’t even one of these boom or bust quarterbacks either, which almost makes it worse. He finished with 6.3 Net Yards/Pass and -5.3% Completion % Over Expectation (CPOE), meaning that when he was completing passes, most of them were dinks and dunks. Overall, he was just a bad, dink and dunk quarterback who couldn’t hit the passes he was supposed to make.
No wonder the Badgers’ offense was so inept, huh?
Overall, the Badgers' offense ranked 109th in the country, averaging just 22.6 points per game. Couple that terrible output with a defense that regressed, and the team fell to 5-7 overall, missing a bowl game for the first time in 23 years.
After two disastrous offensive campaigns, Fickell fired Longo before the conclusion of the 2024 season.
The Bygone Era of the Big 10 West division
Throughout the 90s and 2000s, the Wisconsin football program feasted on the old Big 10 West division. The Badgers were consistently at or near the top of the pack that featured teams like Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern and Purdue.
But ever since the Big 10 did away with divisions, Wisconsin no longer has the luxury of playing half of its conference slate against bad or below-average teams. In the old days, it wasn’t out of the ordinary for the Badgers to avoid all or most of the Big 10 East perennial powers, Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State in a given year.
But since the arrival of conference newcomers Nebraska, Oregon, Rutgers, USC and UCLA and the Big 10 eliminating divisions starting in 2024, well, the playing field has been leveled to a significant degree.
Since Fickell took over in 2023, the Badgers have played against Nebraska twice and Ohio State, USC, Penn State and Oregon once, resulting in a 1-5 record. It’s a small sample size, but it points to a new reality for Wisconsin football. The Badgers will now have to go through the conference’s elite (or just above average) teams to keep their place in the Big 10 football hierarchy.
What Comes Next for Fickell and Wisconsin?
On February 19, Wisconsin announced that Fickell would be receiving a one-year extension on a contract that now runs through the 2031 season.
Fickell’s original seven-year contract was set to pay him an average of $7.8 million per year. As part of the extension, he’ll now receive an annual review that would result in a one-year extension based on satisfactory performance.
I read this extension as one of two things.
Either the Wisconsin brass is doubling down on Fickell, and they truly believe that despite the slow start, he and his staff will mold this program into a future Big 10 contender.
Or, this is a dreaded vote of confidence, and Wisconsin wanted to include the annual review part of this extension as a way to pull the rip cord on Fickell if things continue to go south.
Fickell is a smart man. He knows things have not been nearly good enough and that wholesale changes are in order.
He moved on from Longo and the Dairy Raid and has since hired Kansas assistant Jeff Grimes. Grimes has an impressive pedigree of building offenses at both BYU and Baylor, and was a Broyles Award finalist in back-to-back seasons in 2021 and 2022. He’s also well known for being an offensive line-focused coach, so I suspect Wisconsin will go back to its roots a bit and attempt to establish a good run game and offensive line unit.
The Badgers are once again rolling the dice on a quarterback via the transfer portal and have settled on former Maryland signal-caller Billy Edwards. Edwards didn’t exactly light the world on fire at Maryland, but rarely do quarterbacks do that at a school like Maryland. Simply put: This gamble does not inspire a ton of confidence.
The first two seasons for Fickell at Wisconsin were difficult. The offense never got going. The defense regressed. And the schedule was more difficult than in previous seasons.
Looking ahead to 2025, Wisconsin has a tough road ahead. The Badgers will get an early-season test in the form of a nonconference trip to Tuscaloosa to face Kalen DeBoer’s Alabama team. In Big 10 play, Wisconsin has games against Ohio State, Oregon, Michigan, Indiana and Illinois. That’s a hellish slate, no doubt about it.
But if Fickell is anything like his former teammates describe him to be, he’ll be ready for the challenge.
Along with calling him a “tough SOB”, Finkes once said this about his Fickell.
“Nothing stops him. Nothing can dissuade him. He’s going to keep on task. He’s going to attack everything with the intensity that he can. He just continues to overcome obstacles and whatever is put in front of him. I think he’s done that his entire life.”
Luke Fickell has faced some serious obstacles through two seasons in Madison. Can he and Badgers overcome a faltering offense and a daunting new Big 10 reality? Or did Fickell’s Dairy Raid gamble sour his relationship with Wisconsin fans?
What I’m Reading
SID Sports - Don’t forget to subscribe to Griffin Olah’s SID Sports newsletter. As a former Division I sports information director, Olah has a great grasp of the sport and I really enjoy his work.
2201 Kimball Ave | Cameron Morgan - 2201 Kimball Ave is essential reading for all followers of Kansas State football. As a lifelong K-State fan and former player, Cameron brings a unique and thoughtful approach to the analysis of the Wildcats' football team. His newsletters are rational and insightful and I genuinely learn something new with every newsletter.
Split Zone Duo | Alex Kirshner, Richard Johnson and Steven Godfrey - SZD is essential reading and following for CFB ball knowers. Godfrey, Richard and Alex are the Holy Trinity for college football analysis and insight. Each member brings a unique flavor to the conversation, which makes for insightful and downright hilarious banter about the sport we all love. If I had someone ask me where to start for smarter college football coverage, SZD is where I'd send them.