CFP Semifinals - The Call Sheet

No. 6 Penn State vs. No. 7 Notre Dame

Last June, I argued that Penn State fans should be happy with what they have in head coach James Franklin. Seven months later the Nittany Lions are on the cusp of a national title berth. Life can be funny like that.

How did Penn State get here?

Thanks in large part to a stingy defense, led by All-World defensive end Abdul Carter. The unanimous All-American and Nagurski-Woodson Defensive Player of the Year award winner has been a driving force in what the Nittany Lions do—and are capable of—on defense. This team just looks and feels different compared to the Penn State teams we’ve seen in recent memory. This group does an excellent job of batting in the secondary and squashing opponents’ run games. In the College Football Playoff Quarterfinal game against Boise State, the Nittany Lions held Heisman Trophy finalist Ashton Jeanty to his lowest output of the season, even without Carter for large swaths of the game.

On offense, Penn State is like one of your favorite restaurants that recently revamped its menu. It’s trying to do some different things (thanks OC Andy Kotelnicki) and even when it’s not perfect or might be doing too much, it somehow still remains largely effective.

Kotelnicki has done some really nice things for this offense and quarterback Drew Allar is finally looking the part of a potential NFL quarterback. The offensive line is stellar. The one-two punch of Kaytron Allen and Nic Singleton is immense. And Allar just isn’t turning the ball over as of late, which is a huge signal in his development.

How does Penn State win this game?

It starts on defense, where this until will be faced with an immense challenge going up against the Notre Dame run game. I suspect Carter plays (despite the injury) and we see a full-flavor Nittany Lion defense. The key to beating Notre Dame starts with stopping the run game, so I suspect Penn State will sell out in this regard. If this group can limit quarterback Riley Leonard, that will be massive for their chances of making the Fighting Irish one-dimensional and uncomfortable.

On offense, Penn State needs to run the ball decently well and hit some plays downfield as they present themself. Mackey Award-winning tight end Tyler Warren should pose some interesting matchup problems like he does every week. Can the Nittany Lions’ receiving core make a good Notre Dame secondary sweat? I can’t wait to find out.

If you’re Notre Dame, this game is all about just doing what you do.

The Fighting Irish are good on the ground, especially when Leonard gets going. Have a fearsome defense that generates pressure and tackles with oomph. And has an increasingly fun and effective special teams unit. They possess the hallmarks of a possibly great football team…and yet I just can’t buy into this offense.

I don’t think Notre Dame has the dudes or the ability to effectively pass the ball downfield when shit hits the fan. Luckily, things haven’t gotten to that point yet, with the defense and special teams making enough timely plays last week against Georgia where it didn’t matter.

I desperately want to see Notre Dame in this type of spot. Leonard is a lot of things, but a dead-eye, downfield assassin does not appear to be one of them. I’d like to see a situation where Penn State is stymying the run game and Notre Dame has to get creative down the field. We’ll see if it happens.

How does Notre Dame win this game?

The Fighting Irish win this game against Penn State if they follow the same formula they used to win games against Indiana and Georgia. Run the ball. Control the clock. Force Drew Allar into mistakes. Make an impact play on special teams.

It sounds a bit boring but that’s the formula for this team. Do what you do and you’ll win the game. It’s that simple.

Despite this being one of the most likable Notre Dame teams of my lifetime, I picked against this group versus Georgia and I’m going to do so here, too. I just refuse to believe that Notre Dame can keep winning without a modern, downfield passing offense. At some point, it should come back to haunt them and I think it could be in this matchup.

Special note: It’s very cool that this matchup features a pair of Black head coaches and that one of them is guaranteed to make an appearance in the national title game. I can’t wait to watch this one play out!

No. 5 Texas vs. No. 8 Ohio State

All eyes were on the UT running game and offensive line in the lead-up to Texas-Arizona State. That facet of the game, and that unit, have been immense for the Longhorns all year, and it felt like the run game had to be successful if Texas was to advance.

Well, it turns out we were all wrong. The offensive line looked banged up and suffered a few more dents and dings throughout the game. ASU bottled up running backs Quintrevion Wisner and Jaydon Blue. And the Longhorns mustered just a paltry 53 rush yards in a critical game. Despite no semblance of a run game and a woeful kicking performance from Bert Auburn, Texas found a way to beat Arizona State and advance to the CFP Semifinals.

It almost goes without saying, but things will need to drastically improve this time around against Big Bad Ohio State.

Across the field from Texas lies Ohio State–which resembles more of a war machine than a football team in recent weeks. Quarterback Will Howard has been clinical in blowout victories over Tennessee and top-seed Oregon. Jeremiah Smith has been unplayable, unguardable and unfuckwittable, no matter how many players are defending him. And the Buckeyes defense is peaking at the right time, thanks to some immense defensive line play in both the run and pass game.

Let’s start with Texas. How do the Longhorns win this game?

Texas has had arguably the best defense in the country for most of the season. The defensive line has gobbled up running backs and generated enough pressure to keep quarterbacks off-kilter. This will need to be a major emphasis of the Longhorns if they hope to keep that OSU offense at bay.

If you were to find one flaw with the Ohio State offense, it’s the inconsistency with running the football. The offensive line has suffered some injuries, and despite having a lethal one-two punch in the backfield, the Buckeyes haven’t always been proficient in this area. If Texas hopes to come out on top, I think its best bet is to swallow up the OSU run game and make the Buckeyes one-dimensional. Upon doing so, they’ll need to get enough pressure on Howard to make him uneasy and inaccurate. It’s a tall task.

OSU freshman phenom Jeremiah Smith is the great outlier. Does Texas double-team him and make someone else beat them? If so, can Will Howard stay patient and find Egbuka and others instead of forcing it into double coverage? I can’t wait to find out.

If I were Texas, I’d do my best to lure Ohio State into a Man Ball scenario like Michigan did. I doubt that Ohio State will fall for the caveman football trap a second time…but you never know, I suppose?

What does Ohio State need to do to win?

For me, it starts on defense. I think the Buckeyes need to take a page from the Sun Devils’ playbook and shut down the Texas run game. The Longhorns were way too one-dimensional in the quarterfinals–and if that happens again it could be a long day for Steve Sarkisian and Company.

If I was Ohio State, I’d dare Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers to beat me for four quarters. Ewers possesses an immense amount of talent, but there’s something about him that gives off “medium-game quarterback”…shoutout to The Solid Verbal Podcast.

I don’t foresee a world where Ewers can consistently make Ohio State pay, especially if the Buckeyes can generate an appropriate amount of pressure as it did against Dillon Gabriel and Oregon.

As good as Texas has been this season, I’m rolling with Ohio State. The Buckeyes are hitting on all cylinders and I expect Ohio State to ride this postseason revival to a national title.

+2 units on the season

Notre Dame vs. +2 Penn State - Betting on James Franklin in a huge spot…what could go wrong?

-6 Ohio State vs. Texas - Ohio State is peaking at the right time and I like the Buckeyes in this spot.

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