Photo by Maria Lysaker - Death Valley Insider

LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier is going to lead the Tigers to the College Football Playoff and put up a Heisman Trophy-caliber season in 2025.

There, I said it.

Last year, Nussmeier passed the eye test, standing tall in a pass-heavy offense that was overly reliant on his abilities. The Tigers' offense had no semblance of a run game, finishing dead last in the SEC at just over 116 rushing yards per game. And yet, he managed to throw for over 4,000 yards and 29 touchdowns, all while shouldering an incredibly high usage rate.

Throughout the 2024 season, Nussmeier upheld a huge level of responsibility as a first-time starter. He made big throws in big spots. And despite his high interception rate, I now believe that with more help on the outside, he's poised to go up a level.

What I believe is great and all, but what does the data tell us? Using data from Hudl IQ (and what I know about this year's roster), I'm ready to make the argument for Nussmeier's big leap this fall.

🚂 All Aboard the Nuss Buss, y'all. 🚂

Last season, Nussmeier wowed fans across SEC country with his NFL-level arm talent. On numerous occasions, he showcased a knack for fitting balls into tight windows and making the kinds of throws most quarterbacks wouldn't dare attempt. This naturally led to some highlight-reel completions and also contributed to his tied-for-conference-high 12 interceptions.

Source: Hudl IQ

Using the Hudl IQ Player Radar, one of the first things that jumps out is his incredibly high Usage % (61.4%). The SEC QB average Usage % is only 48.5%. This proves just how reliant the LSU offense was on Nuss to make things happen.

The other thing that stands out on the Traits Radar is just how much Nussmeier does not care to run. He's not a downfield runner at all—which forced a major shift in playstyle compared to his predecessor, Jayden Daniels. Despite his refusal to use his legs to pick up extra yards, Nussmeier finished with a Pocket Left % of 24.4%, significantly higher than the league average. This tells me he's willing to get outside the pocket to extend plays, giving his receivers extra time to get open. Why does that matter? It matters because it means he's mobile enough, even if he isn't a runner.

Source: Hudl IQ

Looking at the Performance Radar, Nussmeier was an above-average quarterback in every discernible metric outside of Explosive %. More on this later.

In particular, Nussmeier was a net positive in important categories like EPA/Play (0.18), EPA/Pass (0.18), Pass Success % (50.6%) and Completion % (63.9%).

So what gives with the low Explosive %? My theory: LSU just did not have the type of wide receivers to take the top off a defense last season.

Aaron Anderson and Kyren Lacey both hauled in nearly 60 passes apiece, but neither cracked the 15 YPC (yards per catch) marker. The other best-receiving target was tight end Mason Taylor (9.9 YPC). A lack of consistent deep threat, coupled with an over-reliance on passing the football, forced Nussmeier to hit a lot more underneath balls than his peers. This likely also contributed to his higher-than-SEC-average completion percentage.

One of the other important factors to mention about last year's LSU team was how good of a pass-blocking unit the offensive line was. Anchored by NFL tackles Will Campbell and Emory Jones Jr., that unit kept Nussmeier upright with great consistency, as evidenced by the 2.8% Sack % (which was less than half compared to average SEC sack rates).

Behind a stout passing-block offensive line, Nussmeier was able to find holes in the defense and hit open targets, even without a consistent deep-threat weapon on the outside.

Source: Hudl IQ

Using the Hudl IQ Player Comparison tool, we can see that last season, Nussmeier was most similar to quarterbacks like Ben Wooldridge from Louisiana, Seth Henigan from Memphis, Maddux Madsen from Boise State and Miller Moss, formerly of USC.

I know what you must be thinking. Tyler, this isn't exactly elite company. Good? Sure. Elite? Far from it.

Fair retort. Nussmeier was good last season, but I wouldn't say he was always great. So why am I so high on him entering this season?

When compared with a handful of the consensus elite quarterbacks, it's easy to project Nussmeier as someone who belongs in this group. Check out the Player Comparison chart below that features quarterbacks like Arch Manning, Cade Klubnik and Drew Allar.

Source: Hudl IQ

We can see that with a similar workload, Nussmeier had eerily similar EPA/Play and EPA/Pass figures as both Klubnik and Allar. That trio also had very similar Success %, Completion % and Yards/Completion numbers, among other categories. Nussmeier's Usage % (61.4%) also dwarfed Klubnik's (56.3%) and Allar's (45.2%), showing just how much the LSU offense runs through him as the signal-caller.

I included Arch Manning in his comparison exercise for a few reasons.

Manning's numbers are off the charts compared to the other three quarterbacks. But it would be disingenuous not to point out that Manning played far fewer snaps than Nussmeier, Klubnik and Allar, most of which were against backups.

Even so, the fact that Nussmeier's 2024 season reasonably stacks up against three of the other early frontrunners for the 2025 Heisman Trophy speaks volumes about how good he was and how much better he can still become.

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The LSU coaching staff knew it needed to get Nussmeier some help in 2025, which is why the Tigers signed the top-ranked transfer portal class this offseason, according to 247 Sports. The Tigers secured 18 total commitments. That list includes two big-time targets in former Oklahoma wide receiver Nic Anderson and former Kentucky wide receiver Barion Brown.

Remember when I talked about not having enough deep threats? Yeah, Anderson and Brown should help in that department if the pair can stay healthy.

The offensive line will look a lot different this time around, too, with offensive tackles Will Campbell and Emory Jones Jr. both off to the NFL. To reconfigure that group, LSU again dipped into the portal and came back with Virginia Tech interior o-lineman Braelin Moore and Northwestern’s Josh Thompson.

With a reconfigured roster, the one constant is Nussmeier. He will surely be asked to carry a big workload again. But it feels next to impossible for LSU to be as bad at running the ball as it was last season. Surely, that area of the offense will improve, which should take a little strain off Nussmeier.

We are still some time away from a ball being kicked, but it’s never too early to look ahead to the 2025 schedule. In a pressure-cooker season where the floor is a College Football Playoff berth, Nussmeier and the Tigers will have to perform well early.

LSU will kick off the 2025 season on August 30 on the road against Clemson. That very well could be a matchup between future College Football Playoff teams. The winner of that matchup will immediately become a trendy CFP pick. The loser? Well, the loser will have to make up some ground to get back in the race.

No matter the result of the season opener, LSU faces a daunting schedule with games against the likes of Ole Miss, Alabama, Oklahoma, Florida and Texas A&M.

Fortune favors the bold, and I’m pushing my chips in on Nussmeier and LSU as we inch closer to the start of the 2025 season.

Last season, Nussmeier passed the eye test. The data backed up his play, too.

I fully believe Garrett Nussmeier is going to have a stellar year for LSU. And I can’t wait to watch him ball out on Saturdays.

Hurry up, folks! The Nuss Buss is starting to fill up.

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